diff --git a/pkg/config/config.go b/pkg/config/config.go
index 798f11a8c..42de28851 100644
--- a/pkg/config/config.go
+++ b/pkg/config/config.go
@@ -139,7 +139,9 @@ type CongestionControlProbeConfig struct {
 
 type CongestionControlChannelObserverConfig struct {
 	EstimateRequiredSamples        int           `yaml:"estimate_required_samples,omitempty"`
+	EstimateRequiredSamplesMin     int           `yaml:"estimate_required_samples_min,omitempty"`
 	EstimateDownwardTrendThreshold float64       `yaml:"estimate_downward_trend_threshold,omitempty"`
+	EstimateDownwardTrendMaxWait   time.Duration `yaml:"estimate_downward_trend_max_wait,omitempty"`
 	EstimateValidityWindow         time.Duration `yaml:"estimate_validity_window,omitempty"`
 	NackMinPPS                     uint32        `yaml:"nack_min_pps,omitempty"`
 	NackWindowMinDuration          time.Duration `yaml:"nack_window_min_duration,omitempty"`
@@ -331,7 +333,9 @@ var DefaultConfig = Config{
 			},
 			ChannelObserverProbeConfig: CongestionControlChannelObserverConfig{
 				EstimateRequiredSamples:        3,
+				EstimateRequiredSamplesMin:     3,
 				EstimateDownwardTrendThreshold: 0.0,
+				EstimateDownwardTrendMaxWait:   5 * time.Second,
 				EstimateValidityWindow:         10 * time.Second,
 				NackMinPPS:                     0,
 				NackWindowMinDuration:          500 * time.Millisecond,
@@ -339,12 +343,14 @@ var DefaultConfig = Config{
 				NackRatioThreshold:             0.04,
 			},
 			ChannelObserverNonProbeConfig: CongestionControlChannelObserverConfig{
-				EstimateRequiredSamples:        8,
-				EstimateDownwardTrendThreshold: -0.5,
+				EstimateRequiredSamples:        12,
+				EstimateRequiredSamplesMin:     8,
+				EstimateDownwardTrendThreshold: -0.6,
+				EstimateDownwardTrendMaxWait:   5 * time.Second,
 				EstimateValidityWindow:         10 * time.Second,
 				NackMinPPS:                     50,
-				NackWindowMinDuration:          1 * time.Second,
-				NackWindowMaxDuration:          2 * time.Second,
+				NackWindowMinDuration:          2 * time.Second,
+				NackWindowMaxDuration:          3 * time.Second,
 				NackRatioThreshold:             0.08,
 			},
 		},
diff --git a/pkg/rtc/participant.go b/pkg/rtc/participant.go
index aea4c9e94..cd0d61e9d 100644
--- a/pkg/rtc/participant.go
+++ b/pkg/rtc/participant.go
@@ -863,7 +863,9 @@ func (p *ParticipantImpl) ICERestart(iceConfig *livekit.ICEConfig) {
 		t.(types.LocalMediaTrack).Restart()
 	}
 
-	p.TransportManager.ICERestart(iceConfig)
+	if err := p.TransportManager.ICERestart(iceConfig); err != nil {
+		p.IssueFullReconnect(types.ParticipantCloseReasonNegotiateFailed)
+	}
 }
 
 func (p *ParticipantImpl) OnICEConfigChanged(f func(participant types.LocalParticipant, iceConfig *livekit.ICEConfig)) {
diff --git a/pkg/rtc/transport.go b/pkg/rtc/transport.go
index 0eaabd1ed..2c565f194 100644
--- a/pkg/rtc/transport.go
+++ b/pkg/rtc/transport.go
@@ -72,13 +72,14 @@ const (
 )
 
 var (
-	ErrIceRestartWithoutLocalSDP = errors.New("ICE restart without local SDP settled")
-	ErrNoTransceiver             = errors.New("no transceiver")
-	ErrNoSender                  = errors.New("no sender")
-	ErrNoICECandidateHandler     = errors.New("no ICE candidate handler")
-	ErrNoOfferHandler            = errors.New("no offer handler")
-	ErrNoAnswerHandler           = errors.New("no answer handler")
-	ErrMidNotFound               = errors.New("mid not found")
+	ErrIceRestartWithoutLocalSDP        = errors.New("ICE restart without local SDP settled")
+	ErrIceRestartOnClosedPeerConnection = errors.New("ICE restart on closed peer connection")
+	ErrNoTransceiver                    = errors.New("no transceiver")
+	ErrNoSender                         = errors.New("no sender")
+	ErrNoICECandidateHandler            = errors.New("no ICE candidate handler")
+	ErrNoOfferHandler                   = errors.New("no offer handler")
+	ErrNoAnswerHandler                  = errors.New("no answer handler")
+	ErrMidNotFound                      = errors.New("mid not found")
 )
 
 // -------------------------------------------------------------------------
@@ -1103,10 +1104,16 @@ func (t *PCTransport) Negotiate(force bool) {
 	}
 }
 
-func (t *PCTransport) ICERestart() {
+func (t *PCTransport) ICERestart() error {
+	if t.pc.ConnectionState() == webrtc.PeerConnectionStateClosed {
+		t.params.Logger.Warnw("trying to restart ICE on closed peer connection", nil)
+		return ErrIceRestartOnClosedPeerConnection
+	}
+
 	t.postEvent(event{
 		signal: signalICERestart,
 	})
+	return nil
 }
 
 func (t *PCTransport) ResetShortConnOnICERestart() {
diff --git a/pkg/rtc/transportmanager.go b/pkg/rtc/transportmanager.go
index 3f698ebe1..1b056b6e4 100644
--- a/pkg/rtc/transportmanager.go
+++ b/pkg/rtc/transportmanager.go
@@ -521,12 +521,12 @@ func (t *TransportManager) HandleClientReconnect(reason livekit.ReconnectReason)
 	}
 }
 
-func (t *TransportManager) ICERestart(iceConfig *livekit.ICEConfig) {
+func (t *TransportManager) ICERestart(iceConfig *livekit.ICEConfig) error {
 	if iceConfig != nil {
 		t.SetICEConfig(iceConfig)
 	}
 
-	t.subscriber.ICERestart()
+	return t.subscriber.ICERestart()
 }
 
 func (t *TransportManager) OnICEConfigChanged(f func(iceConfig *livekit.ICEConfig)) {
diff --git a/pkg/sfu/streamallocator/channelobserver.go b/pkg/sfu/streamallocator/channelobserver.go
index 380cefb1d..6c01552fb 100644
--- a/pkg/sfu/streamallocator/channelobserver.go
+++ b/pkg/sfu/streamallocator/channelobserver.go
@@ -90,7 +90,9 @@ func NewChannelObserver(params ChannelObserverParams, logger logger.Logger) *Cha
 			Name:                   params.Name + "-estimate",
 			Logger:                 logger,
 			RequiredSamples:        params.Config.EstimateRequiredSamples,
+			RequiredSamplesMin:     params.Config.EstimateRequiredSamplesMin,
 			DownwardTrendThreshold: params.Config.EstimateDownwardTrendThreshold,
+			DownwardTrendMaxWait:   params.Config.EstimateDownwardTrendMaxWait,
 			ValidityWindow:         params.Config.EstimateValidityWindow,
 		}),
 		nackTracker: NewNackTracker(NackTrackerParams{
diff --git a/pkg/sfu/streamallocator/trenddetector.go b/pkg/sfu/streamallocator/trenddetector.go
index 28b1ce73d..dba80e720 100644
--- a/pkg/sfu/streamallocator/trenddetector.go
+++ b/pkg/sfu/streamallocator/trenddetector.go
@@ -57,7 +57,9 @@ type TrendDetectorParams struct {
 	Name                   string
 	Logger                 logger.Logger
 	RequiredSamples        int
+	RequiredSamplesMin     int
 	DownwardTrendThreshold float64
+	DownwardTrendMaxWait   time.Duration
 	ValidityWindow         time.Duration
 }
 
@@ -189,7 +191,7 @@ func (t *TrendDetector) prune() {
 }
 
 func (t *TrendDetector) updateDirection() {
-	if len(t.samples) < t.params.RequiredSamples {
+	if len(t.samples) < t.params.RequiredSamplesMin {
 		t.direction = TrendDirectionNeutral
 		return
 	}
@@ -199,9 +201,9 @@ func (t *TrendDetector) updateDirection() {
 
 	t.direction = TrendDirectionNeutral
 	switch {
-	case kt > 0:
+	case kt > 0 && len(t.samples) >= t.params.RequiredSamples:
 		t.direction = TrendDirectionUpward
-	case kt < t.params.DownwardTrendThreshold:
+	case kt < t.params.DownwardTrendThreshold && (len(t.samples) >= t.params.RequiredSamples || t.samples[len(t.samples)-1].at.Sub(t.samples[0].at) > t.params.DownwardTrendMaxWait):
 		t.direction = TrendDirectionDownward
 	}
 }