Files
meshcore-analyzer/cmd
Kpa-clawbot a0fddb50aa fix(#789): severity from recent samples; Theil-Sen drift with outlier rejection (#828)
Closes #789.

## The two bugs

1. **Severity from stale median.** `classifySkew(absMedian)` used the
all-time `MedianSkewSec` over every advert ever recorded for the node. A
repeater that was off for hours and then GPS-corrected stayed pinned to
`absurd` because hundreds of historical bad samples poisoned the median.
Reporter's case: `medianSkewSec: -59,063,561.8` while `lastSkewSec:
-0.8` — current health was perfect, dashboard said catastrophic.

2. **Drift from a single correction jump.** Drift used OLS over every
`(ts, skew)` pair, with no outlier rejection. A single GPS-correction
event (skew jumps millions of seconds in ~30s) dominated the regression
and produced `+1,793,549.9 s/day` — physically nonsense; the existing
`maxReasonableDriftPerDay` cap then zeroed it (better than absurd, but
still useless).

## The two fixes

1. **Recent-window severity.** New field `recentMedianSkewSec` = median
over the last `N=5` samples or last `1h`, whichever is narrower (more
current view). Severity now derives from `abs(recentMedianSkewSec)`.
`MeanSkewSec`, `MedianSkewSec`, `LastSkewSec` are preserved unchanged so
the frontend, fleet view, and any external consumers continue to work.

2. **Theil-Sen drift with outlier filter.** Drift now uses the Theil-Sen
estimator (median of all pairwise slopes — textbook robust regression,
~29% breakdown point) on a series pre-filtered to drop samples whose
skew jumps more than `maxPlausibleSkewJumpSec = 60s` from the previous
accepted point. Real µC drift is fractions of a second per advert; clock
corrections fall well outside. Capped at `theilSenMaxPoints = 200`
(most-recent) so O(n²) stays bounded for chatty nodes.

## What stays the same

- Epoch-0 / out-of-range advert filter (PR #769).
- `minDriftSamples = 5` floor.
- `maxReasonableDriftPerDay = 86400` hard backstop.
- API shape: only additions (`recentMedianSkewSec`); no fields removed
or renamed.

## Tests

All in `cmd/server/clock_skew_test.go`:

- `TestSeverityUsesRecentNotMedian` — 100 bad samples (-60s) + 5 good
(-1s) → severity = `ok`, historical median still huge.
- `TestDriftRejectsCorrectionJump` — 30 min of clean linear drift + one
1000s jump → drift small (~12 s/day).
- `TestTheilSenMatchesOLSWhenClean` — clean linear data, Theil-Sen
within ~1% of OLS.
- `TestReporterScenario_789` — exact reproducer: 1662 samples, 1657 @
-683 days then 5 @ -1s → severity `ok`, `recentMedianSkewSec ≈ 0`, drift
bounded; legacy `medianSkewSec` preserved as historical context.

`go test ./... -count=1` (cmd/server) and `node
test-frontend-helpers.js` both pass.

---------

Co-authored-by: clawbot <bot@corescope.local>
Co-authored-by: you <you@example.com>
2026-04-20 22:47:10 -07:00
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