Only scheduled messages and interval adverts could claim the trial armed by an answered health probe, so a bot with neither stayed offline however healthy the radio became. send_dm and send_channel_message now claim an armed trial when offline and run the send through _send_as_offline_trial, under the trial's identity; its result settles the trial (True clears the outage, False or an exception fails it until the next answered probe), so a dead radio still gets at most one attempt per probe. Settlement runs in a worker thread because it can write bot_metadata. Tests drive the real CommandManager guard, and the alert-thread counting in the recovery tests no longer stops asyncio.to_thread's workers.